Market Data & Pricing

Probability is not certainty

In a binary market, a YES price of 0.62 represents a market-implied probability of roughly 62%, not a guaranteed outcome. YES and NO prices approximately sum to 1 in the simplified model; spreads, fees and available liquidity affect observed quotes.

Depth-weighted execution

Average fill price is Σ(price × filled quantity) / Σ(filled quantity). For example, 400 shares at 0.60 and 600 at 0.64 produce an average of 0.624. This illustrative calculation excludes fees and is not a live quote.

Source freshness and slippage

The existing trading documentation describes external venues as a source of depth. A quote can change before execution. Compare the realised average fill with the displayed quote and retain source timestamps where available; do not assume an indicative price can fill unlimited size.

pYES ∈ [0, 1]
pYES + pNO ≈ 1
Average fill = Σ(pi × qi) / Σ(qi)